WHO IS GOING TO CLEAN UP TASMANIA?

(NOTE 24/08/06: This item has been revised as some of the numbers are in dispute and new information is coming to hand day by day. TPMT still thinks that this item holds up even with the new numbers being suggested)

TPMT has just received this notice from CUT (Clean Up Tasmania)and we are publishing in full, unedited, in the hope that someone will confirm the calculations, or better still, be able to refute them.

START INFORMAL ADVISORY NOTICE
A world scale pulp mill in Tasmania could destroy our farms and our forests

The Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) has published information about pulp mills that should concern the community, Gunns shareholders and investors need to carefully consider new information coming in from professional organisations.

JAKARTA (11 May 2006)--False assumptions … have led international investors to channel tens of billions of dollars worldwide into financially risky and environmentally destructive ventures, according to an expert analysis of 67 pulp mill projects released today by the Indonesia-based CIFOR.

The report… warns that a lack of due diligence in the expanding global pulp sector may lead to a new wave of ill-advised projects, setting up investors, forest-dependent communities, and the environment for a precipitous fall.

The CIFOR report finds that the scale of pulp mills has grown dramatically over the past decade and that individual mills now have a voracious appetite for wood: a single large mill with an annual capacity of 1.0 million tonnes requires the equivalent of 15 percent of the Brazilian Amazon's annual timber harvest. When this wood is not available from plantation forests, the demand for pulp can drive illegal logging and clearing of natural forest ecosystems. Plantation development itself often displaces forest communities and fuels social conflicts.

Given the lack of evidence to support the IIS from Gunns, coupled with the biased and compromised process for evaluating the risks to Tasmanians, the local community and investors have every reason to be concerned about the Gunns pulp mill proposal.

One immediate and serious concern is the impact on Tasmania's forests and farms (largely ignored by the RPDC and the State government). If the CIFOR report is correct, (and it is surely more reliable than anything from Gunns) then Gunns mill will require around 12 million tonnes of wood each year as feedstock (Brazil timber harvest = 75 million tonnes; 15% is 11,250,000 tonnes).

Gunns mill is mooted to be 1.1 million tonnes production capacity per year and so will require around 12 million tonnes of timber each year based on the CIFOR figures.

It has been reported that 87,320 hectares of hardwood plantations in Tasmania between 1997 and 2004 were bought with MIS funds. (Plague of plantations, Bevilaqua, News Ltd) which has been estimated as around 17% of Tasmania's farmland.

Using these figures and a figure of 200 cu m of timber per ha as a guide we calculate

12,000,000/200 = 60,000 ha/yr of plantations to feed the pulp mill

If a plantation regrowth rate (turnover) is 15 years then the mill will need 60,000 ha * 15 of plantation feedstock or 900,000 ha.

If 87,000 ha is around 17% of total farms, then 1% would be about 87,000/17 = 5,100 ha

Total farmland area needed to convert to plantations would then be 900,000/5,100 = 175% ……(NOTE: The ACTUAL numbers here are in dispute BUT whatever the outcome, it will be a lot even if it is 50% as some are suggesting and given the impact of that upon Tasmania's economy)

If the assumptions are possible and a reasonable average of the situation, then the Gunns mill could entirely destroy Tasmania's farm sector with plantations and need to remove thousands of hectares of valuable forests.

NB this informal advisory notice has not been based on any definitive studies due to a lack of useful information provided by the State government. The figures from CIFOR and the calculations herein should be used as guides to the risks faced by Tasmania and its population if they wish to build a world scale pulp mill in a tiny (non-world scale) island. Readers with more accurate and definitive estimates are invited to email their figures to us at cleanuptasmania@gmail.com

Richard Barton
CUT (Clean Up Tasmania)
Postal Address
PO Box 5255 Launceston TAS 7250

Email Clean Up Tasmania